Brussels lowers economic growth forecast for Slovenia, decline in quarterly GDP

Brussels/Ljubljana – The European Commission on Monday lowered its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth this year from 2.5% to 2%, and for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.4%. The Commission’s downgrade follows the majority of international institutions. The lowered forecast comes after the Slovenian Statistical Office reported last Thursday a 0.8% decrease in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year on an annual basis. This is the first GDP decline in four years and the largest among eurozone members.

Prime Minister Robert Golob commented on the worsening economic outlook during his address in parliament on Monday, stating that the decline in Slovenia’s quarterly GDP is a result of uncertainties stemming solely from external factors due to the forecast of a trade war by the U.S.

“Since Slovenia is a small, open economy focused on exports, it is logical that fluctuations in international markets are felt most quickly in economies like ours,” he said. The European Commission has indeed lowered its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth this year, Golob stated, but nonetheless “Slovenia remains above the European average in all projections.”

The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia (GZS) described the decline in quarterly GDP as a surprise. GZS’s Chief Executive Officer Mitja Gorenšček said on Monday that this is not unexpected. It is a consequence of two years of wrong decisions, which have caused Slovenia to lose competitiveness, he believed. (May 19)