NATO summit looms as Europe divided on record defence spending hike

The next NATO summit kicks off in The Hague on Tuesday, with a proposed new security-related spending target of 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2032 on the table.

NATO chief Mark Rutte will propose the target with 3.5 percent of GDP for core defence spending and 1.5 percent of GDP for defence and security-related investments in areas like infrastructure and industry. The current NATO defence spending target is 2 percent of GDP.

While many European countries are ramping up military budgets, not all are on board with such a steep increase – despite a sharp global rise in armed conflict.

Last year saw the highest number of armed conflicts involving governments or official forces in more than seven decades, according to a report from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

“This is not just a spike – it’s a structural shift. The world today is far more violent, and far more fragmented, than it was a decade ago,” said Siri Aas Rustad, PRIO’s Research Director and lead author of the report.

An estimated 129,000 people were killed in battle-related violence in 2024, with the majority of deaths linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (76,000) and the war in Gaza (26,000), the report found.

It’s against this backdrop and amid an escalation of military activity between Iran and Israel plus the US President Donald Trump’s demands that European countries spend more on defence that next week’s NATO summit takes place.

Germany: rising threats justify rising budgets

Germany’s finance minister has signalled readiness to raise the country’s defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP in the coming years.

“The world has continued to change over the past three or four years and my top priority is ensuring people’s safety,” Lars Klingbeil said on Monday. “More investment is now needed to achieve this,” said Kingbeil. “If that means [spending] 3 percent, we’ll do 3 percent; if it means 3.5 percent, then we’ll do 3.5 percent.” 

Germany will initially spend 2 percent of GDP on defence this year, Klingbeil said, but added that figure would rise. “I suspect that the numbers will be significantly higher,” he said, ahead of next week’s NATO meeting.

Klingbeil, a member of the centre-left Social Democrats, also warned against focusing the debate solely on figures.

France: don’t focus on figures

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed frustration last month over NATO’s debates on defence spending, while reiterating France’s target of 3.5 percent of GDP “for the coming years”.

“The commitment of an army is not measured by the money spent, but by the names engraved on our war memorials and those who fall,” he said at a press conference in Tirana, Albania.

“I don’t like this debate between allies who only look at the numbers. I know many countries in Europe that have lost many soldiers in theatres of operation and have committed themselves alongside others,” he added.

“And so, I’ll say this very clearly: the 3.5 percent of gross domestic product target is a good target for the coming years, but it won’t happen in six months, and it must be done with substance and consistency.” 

France currently spends about 2 percent of its GDP on military expenditure.

Italy: on board, but far off

Last week, foreign ministers and diplomats from Italy, France, Germany, Britain, Poland, Spain, Ukraine and the EU met with NATO chief Mark Rutte. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, the meeting host whose country spends 1.5 percent of GDP on defence, said he was “very happy” with Rutte’s spending plan.

“We are in favour of spending more on security, but the question for us is timing,” Tajani said. “We have said at least ten years (are needed) to achieve the new objectives.”

In a joint statement after the meeting, the foreign ministers of Italy, France, Germany, Britain, Poland, Spain, plus EU High Representative Kaja Kallas promised to play their part.

“European countries must play an even greater role in ensuring our own security,” they said. “The NATO summit in The Hague will demonstrate our unity, based on an enduring transatlantic bond, an iron-clad commitment to defend each other, and fair burden-sharing.”

Spain: against the proposal

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of his country’s opposition to the new target in a letter on Thursday.

Sánchez wrote that the proposed increase was “not only unreasonable but even counterproductive” for his country and expressed concern that it was incompatible with maintaining a strong welfare state.

Therefore, he said, Madrid would “not be able to commit to a specific spending target” at the NATO summit next week in The Hague. He is calling for it to be made optional or for a Spanish opt-out clause.

Spain is one of the NATO countries that invests the least in defence, despite Sánchez’s government committing to raising military spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2025. 

Speaking before the news of Sanchez’s letter to Rutte broke, Felix Arteaga, a defence specialist at Madrid’s Elcano Royal Institute, said “internal political reasons” are determining the stance of the minority left-wing coalition government.

Sanchez faces a balancing act of aligning with NATO allies and cajoling his far-left junior coalition partner, electoral alliance Sumar, which is hostile to increasing military spending.

The Iberian Peninsula’s greater distance from Russia than eastern European countries like Poland “reduces concern and urgency… we do not feel threatened, we do not want to enter armed conflicts”, Arteaga said.

“The government must explain to Spanish citizens the need to show solidarity” with countries in northern and eastern Europe, he said.

Denmark: quiet transformation

Once one of NATO’s lowest spenders, Denmark has made a rapid turnaround. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recalled that defence spending was just 1.3 percent of GDP when she took office in 2019. Today, Denmark is on track to exceed 3 percent this year and has committed to reaching the 5 percent target proposed by Rutte.

The Netherlands: host and advocate

The Dutch parliament is virtually in agreement on meeting the new defence spending target, but there are disagreements on how it should be funded.

Parliamentary elections are set for October after the current coalition government collapsed following the withdrawal of the far-right PVV. The caretaker cabinet will leave it up to the new government to decide on how the new defence spending will be funded.

Portugal: playing catch-up

Portugal, one of NATO’s founding members, has long underinvested in defence compared to other members. The country has a deeply underdeveloped industrial base, old military equipment, and an exodus in military personnel.

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro recently brought forward the 2 percent defence spending target from 2030 to 2025 amid international pressure. However, Portuguese officials admit that reaching the 5 percent target remains a long-term ambition. 

Czech Republic: fully on board

The Czech Republic is among the countries supportive of the proposed defence spending increase.

It said Prague perceives Russia as the most serious direct threat to the Euro-Atlantic area and therefore supports the strengthening of the defence industry. 

“Specifically for the Czech Republic, which is a country surrounded by NATO Allies, our role is mainly as a transit route and host nation support. Which means a lot of requirements on logistics and every kind of support to moving troops,” President Petr Pavel said last month.

“The spending that we would have to spend anyway for improving all means of transport routes through the Czech Republic will actually count for this 1.5 percent. So I don’t think it will be a big difficulty to achieve that level of spending,” he added.

Slovakia: cautious and reluctant

At a time when arms manufacturers are rubbing their hands with glee and Europe is talking about war, neutrality would be best for Slovakia, according to Prime Minister Robert Fico. He also questioned Slovakia’s membership of NATO.

He wrote on social media that Slovakia must be a staunch advocate of peace and should not be part of any military adventures. “Unfortunately, another world war is just around the corner. NATO is like a golf club. If you want to play, you have to pay a membership fee. The United States has decided to increase its membership to 5 percent of GDP. Although this is irrational at a time of fiscal consolidation and social welfare state building, it is also the reality we face,” he said.

President Peter Pellegrini, Fico’s ally, for once broke ranks with the premier, calling him “an expert in cluttering up the public space with a topic that we will all discuss for 20 days and there will be no result”.

He said that the Slovak Republic will not undermine unity at the NATO summit in The Hague.

North Macedonia: solid and committed

North Macedonia’s defence budget for 2025 is 329 million Euro, higher than 2.5 percent of GDP, with over 32 percent (106 million Euro) of that allocated for modernisation and equipment.

Defence Minister Vlado Misajlovski said that many NATO countries have already started planning how to reach 3.5 percent of GDP on defence in the next ten years. “We will also work on this, improving all our documents alongside all institutions so that, over time, the state budget gradually increases, which is very important for ensuring a larger budget for the Defence Ministry,” Misajlovski told MIA.

Slovenia: gradual spending increases

Slovenia’s parliament recently confirmed a plan to raise defence spending to 2 percent of GDP this year, with a gradual increase to 3 percent by 2030. 

This is despite the junior coalition Left party calling for a consultative referendum on the increase. The Slovenian National Assembly will vote on whether to heed this call next month.

A poll, conducted for the Dnevnik newspaper by the Ninamedia agency, published on June 16, has shown that the majority of Slovenians, 53 percent, support the government’s plan to increase defence spending to 2 percent of GDP this year.

However, public opinion is more divided on further increases, the proposal to gradually raise defence expenditure to 3 percent of GDP by 2030 is opposed by 49 percent of those polled.

According to the latest NATO estimations, Slovenia spent 1.37 percent of GDP on defence last year.

Regarding the new 5 percent of GDP defence spending target, Slovenia is in the group of member states that advocate for a longer period to achieve it, i.e. 2035.

Croatia: from 2 percent to 3 percent by 2030

Having recently reached the 2 percent benchmark, Croatia aims to spend 3 percent of GDP on defence by 2030. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković highlighted that Croatia has increased defence spending by more than 200 percent since 2016. 

Sweden: clear and united

In Sweden, all eight parties in the parliament are united in a unique cross-party support for defence. 300 billion Swedish krona – approximately 27 billion Euro – will be spent on reaching the new NATO targets.

“We shall protect our country and build defence capacity with others. Deep down, it’s all about that our grandchildren and children should not be forced to learn Russian,” Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson told a press conference in Stockholm on Thursday.

The rearmament will be financed through loans.

Sweden has already been ramping up defence dramatically during the last couple of years, more than doubling spending since the mid-2010s.

Bulgaria: ready to spend more

Bulgaria’s defence spending reached the 2 percent of GDP target in 2024. However, Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov stressed that the current resources in the sector are insufficient not only for rearmament and modernisation, but also to solve the problem of high vacancy rates for servicemen. 

The government now aims to increase the defence spending to at least 2.5 to 3 percent, with a goal of reaching 3.5 percent of GDP by 2032 as a minimum level to succeed in the country’s modernisation efforts. 

In May, Bulgaria was among 16 EU Member States that asked to be allowed to temporarily waive budget stability rules in order to spend more on defence.

This article is published twice a week. The content is based on news by agencies participating in the enr.